【楼评】百强降幅47.5%筑底待复苏|2024年1季度全国楼市创新低！

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太原楼评☞ | 业内视角

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行业数据再创新低，“苦难”还要持续多久？——太原楼评

察势者明，趋势者智，驭势者独步天下！见字如面，大家好，我是太原楼评君！

4月1日早间，克而瑞发布了2024年1-3月百强房企业绩榜单！不出意外，2024年1季度，中国房地产市场再创新低，降幅近五成，楼市筑底是否已形成，未来能否复苏？

2024年1季度，TOP100房企销售操盘金额累计7792.4亿元，同比降幅47.5%。其中3月，TOP100房企实现销售操盘金额3583.2亿元，较去年3月同比降低45.8%。

楼市续跌｜何时能止

2024年，大概率全国楼市仍有回落，10-15%的降幅，总规模回落到10万亿，基本成为行业的共识，所以2024年成为成功筑底，成为楼市复苏的起点？



结合目前的相关政策，控制商品房在房地产市场的占比是大趋势，更多的保障房等相关产品成为市场的供应的新势力下，房地产行业不会垮掉，但是行业逻辑要变了！
故而，商品房的市场占有率仍会下降，但是商品房的价格或许已经呈现了复苏迹象，即商品房的不再是规模化发展，而是出现更多品质好的价格偏高的品质类项目！

NO. 1｜国央企的崛起

房地产市场支持政策已大量出台，伴随着保障性住房赛道开拓，全国性城改的重启，楼市基本面还是可以的，但对于普通房企来说，国央企相对崛起更迅速！
1，融资的优势，在开拓中极强的护城河。
2，城改重启赛道，保交楼下获先手资格。
3，保障性住房，国央企代建合作更丝滑！
看2024年的排行榜，保利和中海打头阵，华润和招商蛇口紧随，前十强仅剩龙湖一个纯民企类房企，过去的恒大，碧桂园，融创的时代领航基本翻篇了！



2024年3月逾九成百强房企单月和累计业绩同比降低。单月业绩同比降幅大于50%的企业数量达到52家，业绩同比整体呈普降态势。



国央企代表中海单月销售412.1亿元，创近一年来新高。上海新天地板块的中海·顺昌玖里3月28日开盘贡献业绩196.5亿元，刷新了全国商品房单次开盘最高销售纪录。
未来商品房主要赛道在改善类，“好房子”往往需要更强的技术研发和产品设计，这对于长期精耕豪宅领域的房企更友好！赛道在刚改类，过去规模优势如今成为劣势！

NO. 2｜楼市未来趋势

市场下行，融资开源不畅的民企，唯有推盘营销和壮士断腕，新房成交出现腰斩，而现金流并不能同步缩减，故而“价格战”仍是超量供应市场的主旋律。
尽管政策面持续优化、释放利好，但市场信心支撑不足、需求及购买力低迷，行业预期尚未得到明显修复。短期内市场不会出现明显转暖，房企仍将持续面临较大压力。



城市而言，高能级城市修复更快，源于人口基数高，需求量大，新房采用“价格倒挂”策略，具有更强的市场号召力——如上海中海的做法！
低能级城市，即便骨折营销，如竞争者内卷，成效也不算太大，加上部分高存量城市有布局配售型保障房，对城市内刚需项目的价格也有继续施压的功效！
而一线和强二线城市，往往经历了2年多的调整期，成交规模已趋近于底部，降无可降。去化逐步有了回升，但是后劲略显不足，客户观望情绪比较浓厚。
预判今年上半年，楼市的成交量同比还将延续降势，楼市成交规模难有逆势表现。下半年，部分高能级城市或因产品升级等刺激下，有望逐步拉升市场的先行复苏者！

咨询顾问，专注趋势！

文中意见和内容仅供交流使用

主业：城市进入/土地推荐/可行性分析

产品定位/开发咨询/企业培训

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